According to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), confidence of mid-market companies in economic recovery grew by 5 percentage points globally in Q3, reaching the levels of Q1 2024, and by 2 points in the European Union, while it declined by 3 percentage points in Italy.
- The most important constraints identified by Italian entrepreneurs remain economic uncertainty (48%), as well as energy costs (61%) and labour costs (58%)
- EU business leaders’ intentions to increase investments in technological innovation, research and development, brand, sustainability and employees’ skills reached an all time high
Milan, 13 October 2025 – Data from the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) for Q3 2025 show a rebound in mid-market business optimism, now matching the levels seen in Q4 2024. The survey - conducted on a sample of over 2,500 business leaders globally - shows an increase in business optimism of 5 percentage points, from 71% to 76%. The growth is more contained in the EU, only up 2 points (from 59% to 61%). In Italy, instead, a 3-percentage point decrease was recorded (from 62% to 59%).
Economic optimism and uncertainty: 2020 - 2025
Main growth constraints for mid-market businesses
Economic uncertainty recorded a 2 percentage points increase globally, from 60% to 62% (a similar value was recorded only back in Q1 2022) and a 1 point increase in the UE (from 47% to 48%). In Italy, instead, the data decreased by 3 points (from 51% to 48%).
The number of business leaders concerned over cybersecurity rose sharply to a record high globally (up 5 points, from 50% to 55%). On the contrary, in the EU and in Italy the data decreased respectively by 4 points (from 45% to 41%) - the lowest data ever recorded by the report – and by 12 points (from 52% to 40%), reflecting the businesses perception of their increased defence capabilities.
Concerns over increased energy costs grew both in Italy (up 7 points, from 54% to 61%) and in the EU (up 1 point, from 49% to 50%), as well as globally (up 3 points, from 52% from 55%).
Concerns over labour costs also increased both globally (up 3 points, from 52% to 55%) - a similar value was recorded only back in Q2 2022 - and in the EU (up 2 points, from 45% to 47%). In Italy the data remained unchanged at 58%.
Growth prospects and impact on revenues
Driven by rising global optimism, the percentage of business leaders with a positive outlook on profitability has also grown: it is up 3 percentage points globally (from 63% to 66%), 4 points in the European Union (from 51% to 55%), whereas in Italy the percentage remain stable at 51%.
The percentage of business leaders expecting to increase selling prices is up 4 points in Italy (from 45% to 49%), and just 1 point in the EU (from 49% to 50%), while a slight decrease of 1 point is recorded globally (from 54% to 53%). The percentage of EU business leaders expecting an increase in turnover is also up 4 points (from 57% to 61%), an all-time high for the report, and significantly up also in Italy (11 points, from 55% to 66%). Globally, instead, the data is down 2 percentage points, from 66% to 64%.
The share of businesses expecting to increase the number employees grew both globally (up 4 points, from 53% to 57%) and in the EU (from 45% to 49%), whereas in Italy it is down 2 points, from 43% to 41%. The percentage of business leaders planning to offer salary increases remained unchanged at 89% globally, although it slightly decreased by 1 point both in the EU (from 87% to 86%) and in Italy (from 81% to 80%).
Investment Intentions
Investment intentions remain strong both in Italy (+11 points, from 52% to 67%) and in the European Union (up 5 points, from 57% to 62%) - a record high in the report history - as concerns technological innovation. The global data remains unchanged at 68%. Investment intentions in research and development also recorded a positive trend in all geographies: in Italy, they are up 5 percentage points, from 54% to 59%, in the EU 1 point (from 51% to 52%), while they remain stable at 60% globally.
Investment intentions in brand and corporate image show an overall increase: they are up 5 points in Italy (from 40% to 45%), 4 points in the EU (from 48% to 52%) and 4 points globally (from 58% to 62%). Investment intentions in sustainability initiatives increased as well, with the highest increase recorded in Italy (5 percentage points, from 44% to 49%), followed by the EU (up 4 points, from 49% to 53%); the global data is also up 4 points (from 56% to 60%).
Investment intentions in employees’ skills decreased in Italy by 5 points (from 51% to 46%), although they remain consistent at 59% globally. In the EU, the data is up 3 points, from 47% to 50%. Investments in workspaces, instead, increased in the EU (up 7 points, from 38% to 45%), as well as in Italy (up 4 points, from 37% to 41%) and globally (up 2 points, from 51% to 53%).
