According to the latest Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), in Q4 2025 optimism about an economic recovery is down 2 percentage points among mid-market businesses globally, whereas it remains stable in the EU and is up 1 point in Italy at 61%.
- Italian business leaders’ concerns over economic uncertainty (+9 pp), access to finance (+12 pp), cybersecurity (+7 pp) and geopolitical issues (+7 pp) all increased
- On the contrary, Italian business leaders’ outlook on a possible increase in technological innovation (-14 pp) and research & development (-5 pp) dropped
Economic optimism and uncertainty: 2020 - 2025
Milan, 22 January 2026 – According to Grant Thornton’s latest International Business Report (IBR), global optimism among mid-market businesses followed a contrasting trend in Q4 2025. The survey, which involved over 2,500 business leaders globally, shows a 2 percentage points decrease in global optimism, from 76% down to 74%. However, optimism levels remained stable in the European Union (61%) and in Italy, with just a 1 percentage point increase (from 59% to 60%).
Economic uncertainty was down 8 percentage points globally, from 62% to 54%. However, both the EU and Italy recorded an increase by 1 pp (from 48% to 49%) and 9 pp (from 48% to 57%) respectively. This is the highest percentage recorded since Q1 2024 for Italy and the highest since Q1 2023 for the EU.
Concerns over access to finance eased globally (-7 pp, from 48% to 41%) and remained stable in the EU at 37%. Italy, on the contrary, recorded a sharp increase: +12 pp compared to the previous quarter, from 39% to 51%.
Similarly, the portion of business leaders worried about cybersecurity decreased at a global level (-4 pp, from 55% to 51%), although it increased in the EU and Italy, by 4pp (from 41% to 45%) and 7 pp (from 40% to 47%) respectively.
A similar trend was observed also as concerns geopolitical disruption, with a 6-point drop globally (from 52% to 54%), and an increase both in the EU (+1 pp, from 46% to 47%) and in Italy (+7 pp, from 49% to 56%).
Perceptions of competition as a constraint were down globally (-6 pp, from 54% to 48%) and in the EU (-2 pp, from 43% to 41%). Italy went against the trend, with a 4-point increase, from 49% to 53%.
A five-point drop in concerns about a shortage of future orders or demand was recorded globally (from 52% to 47%), whereas the data remained stable both in the EU (39%) and in Italy (45%). Conferns about supply chains also saw a decrease globally (-4 pp, from 49% to 45%) and remained unchanged in the EU (39%) and in Italy (41%).
Influenced by the drop in global confidence, expectations of an increase in selling prices dropped on all main markets: -4 pp globally (from 53% to 49%), -2 pp in the EU (from 50% to 48%) and -8pp in Italy, from 49% to 41%. Expectations on an increase in turnover also decreased on all markets analysed, -2 pp decrease globally (from 64& to 62%) and a more significant drop in the EU (-4pp, from 61% to 57%) and in Italy (-7pp, from 66% to 59%).
An overall drop in the expectations of expansion into new markets was also recorded, more slight at a global level (-1pp, from 48% to 47%) and more marked in the UE (-5 pp, from 44% to 39%) and in Italy (-4 pp, from 47% to 43%). The same was true for revenue expectations from international markets, down both globally (-3 pp, from 50% to 47%) and in the EU (-2 pp, from 46% to 44%), but unchanged in Italy at 46%.
The number of business leaders expecting an increase in profitability was down by 2pp globally (from 66% to 64%) and 1 pp in the EU (from 55% to 54%), whereas a 3pp increase was recorded in Italy, from 51% to 54%. A similar trend was recorded as for expectations of an increase in the number of employees: the data were down by 3 pp global (from 57% to 54%) and by 4 pp in the EU (from 49% to 45%), while Italy marked a 5-point increase, from 41% to 46%.
Both the EU and Italy saw an increase in the expectations for an increase in wages, by 1 pp (from 86% and 87%) and 6 pp (from 80% to 86%) respectively. The global data, instead, decreased slightly by just 1 pp, from 89% to 88%.
A reduction in expectations regarding investment in technological innovation was recorded both in Italy (more marked at -14 pp, from 67% to 53%) and globally (-1 pp, from 68% to 67%), whereas the percentage for the EU remain unchanged at 62%. Expectations concerning investment in research and development decreased by 5 pp in Italy, from 59% to 54%, remained unchanged in the EU at 52% and recorded a 1-point increase globally (from 60% to 61%).
As for investments in brand and corporate image, different trends emerged: a slight decrease globally (-3 pp, from 62% to 59%) and in the EU (-2 pp, from 52% to 50%), against a 2-point increase in Italy (from 45% to 47%). Similarly, investment in machinery were down globally (-5 pp, from 52% to 47%) and in the EU (-4 pp, from 48% to 44%), but up 3 pp in Italy (from 44% to 47%).
Finally, investments in the development of employees’ skills recorded a 5-point drop both in Italy (from 46% to 41%) and in the EU (from 50% to 45%) and a 2 pp decrease globally (from 59% to 57%).
